Summary
Over the past six months, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party has experienced an unprecedented surge in both national polling and political influence, marking a dramatic shift in Australia’s political landscape. Once a minor player with a 6.4% primary vote in May 2025, One Nation has climbed to as high as 31% by June 2026, according to multiple reputable polling organizations. This rise has been accompanied by significant political milestones, including the high-profile defection of Barnaby Joyce, a breakthrough in the South Australian state election, and a historic victory in the Farrer federal by-election. The party’s platform—centered on strict immigration caps, housing affordability, energy security, and economic nationalism—has resonated with a broadening voter base, particularly among working-class, regional, and younger Australians. Expert analysts warn that this surge signals a fundamental realignment, with One Nation now positioned as a credible contender for opposition status, echoing the disruptive ascent of Nigel Farage’s Reform Party in the UK.
Detailed Report
1. Polling Trajectory: From Fringe to Forefront
One Nation’s primary vote has soared from 6.4% at the May 2025 federal election to 31% by June 2026. Resolve Political Monitor recorded the party at 14–16% in December 2025, while Roy Morgan found 17.5% in late December. By March 2026, YouGov placed One Nation at 24%, with Spectre Strategy and Freshwater reporting 26% and 25% respectively in April. Newspoll and Resolve both confirmed figures in the low-to-mid 20s during this period. The surge peaked in late May and early June, with Redbridge polling 31%, YouGov at 29%, and Roy Morgan tying One Nation and Labor at 27%. Newspoll’s June survey also recorded One Nation at 31%, consistently ahead of the Coalition and, at times, rivaling Labor.
2. Key Political Advances: Defections and Electoral Breakthroughs
The party’s momentum was catalyzed by the December 2025 defection of former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, who became One Nation’s first sitting member in the House of Representatives. In March 2026, One Nation achieved a historic breakthrough in the South Australian state election, securing 23% of the vote and four lower house seats—its strongest performance outside Queensland. The most significant advance came in April’s Farrer federal by-election, where One Nation’s candidate won with 39.4% of the primary vote and 57.3% on a two-candidate-preferred basis, marking the party’s first ever lower house seat at the federal level.
3. Two-Party Preferred Figures and Seat Projections
Despite Labor maintaining a lead on two-party preferred (2PP) measures, the gap has narrowed considerably. Redbridge polling in late May showed Labor leading One Nation 51–49, while Roy Morgan reported a 53.5–46.5 split. Seat projections from Redbridge and Accent Research suggest One Nation could win between 46 and 59 seats, with a median of 53, positioning the party as the likely opposition and threatening the Coalition’s viability as a major force.
4. Core Policy Platform: Immigration, Housing, Energy, and Economic Nationalism
One Nation’s platform centers on capping annual visas at 130,000, introducing an eight-year waiting period for citizenship and welfare, and advocating for mass deportations of undocumented migrants. The party proposes removing GST on building materials for new homes up to $1 million, banning foreign investment in residential property, and allowing superannuation to be used for home purchases. On energy, One Nation calls for new coal-fired and nuclear power plants and withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. Economic nationalism is emphasized through opposition to free trade agreements and foreign ownership of land and infrastructure.
5. Voter Demographics: Expanding Base
Traditionally strongest among working-class, regional, and less-educated voters, One Nation’s support has broadened in recent months. Generation X voters now show 30% preference for Pauline Hanson as prime minister, while millennials favor the party over Labor by 32% to 28%. Recent polling indicates growing support among women and younger voters, reflecting the party’s appeal to those experiencing economic stress and political disaffection.
6. Expert Commentary: Warnings and Constraints
Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group described One Nation’s South Australian breakthrough as a “very ominous sign” for the major parties, cautioning against ignoring the drift to minor parties. Dr Jill Sheppard of the Australian National University noted that while the preferential voting system may buffer against extreme swings, the fragmentation of the conservative vote is unprecedented. Analysis from Flinders University attributes One Nation’s rise to a “perfect storm” of economic anxiety, political disillusionment, and heightened concerns over immigration and security.
7. Parallel with Reform UK’s Populist Surge
One Nation’s trajectory mirrors the recent rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform Party in the UK, which surged from 2% to over 15% in the 2024 general election and exceeded 250,000 paid-up members by September 2025. Reform UK further solidified its position in the 2026 local elections, gaining over 1,400 council seats and control of 14 councils.
7A. Platform Alignment: Convergence and Divergence
One Nation and Reform UK share a core platform of strict immigration control, economic nationalism, and rejection of net-zero climate targets, with both parties advocating mass deportations and substantial visa restrictions—One Nation at a 130,000 cap and Reform UK proposing a total freeze on non-essential migration. Reform UK adopts the more constitutionally radical position, seeking withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), though both parties align on energy security through fossil fuel and nuclear expansion. Anti-establishment rhetoric—Hanson targeting the "Canberra bubble," Farage invoking a "broken Britain"—is amplified by both leaders' use of social media to bypass traditional press.
7B. Voter Demographics: Overlapping Constituencies and Distinct Trends
Both parties draw their primary support from white, native-born, working-class voters with lower educational attainment, though their age profiles diverge: Reform UK is heavily anchored in older demographics (35% of those over 65), while One Nation has broadened its base to younger cohorts, with millennials preferring the party over Labor 32% to 28%. Both movements exhibit a male-skewed support base, though One Nation is registering growing traction among women under economic stress.
Conclusion
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party has transformed from a marginal protest movement into a central force in Australian politics, achieving record polling, landmark electoral victories, and a broadened voter base. While Labor retains a narrow lead, the party’s rise signals a profound shift in the political landscape, with implications for both major parties and the future of Australian governance.