Summary
In May 2026, Latvia's coalition government collapsed following a crisis triggered by Ukrainian military drones—diverted by Russian electronic warfare—entering Latvian airspace near Rēzekne on May 7. The incident exposed critical failures in Latvia's defense response and set off a rapid political deterioration. Defense Minister Andris Sprūds was forced to resign on May 10, precipitating a breakdown of coalition trust between Prime Minister Evika Siliņa's New Unity party and its partner, the Progressives. After the Progressives formally withdrew from the coalition on May 13, Siliņa resigned on May 14, citing the irreparable loss of parliamentary majority and the need for political accountability on defense matters. Latvia formally protested Russia's role in the incident and rejected Russian disinformation, while Ukraine acknowledged responsibility, attributed the diversion to Russian electronic warfare, apologized, and offered technical cooperation. President Edgars Rinkēvičs has begun consultations to form a new government ahead of scheduled October elections.
Detailed Report
1. Ukrainian Drone Incursions and Immediate Impact
On May 7, 2026, three Ukrainian military drones intended for Russian targets entered Latvian airspace near Rēzekne after being diverted by Russian electronic warfare. Two drones crashed within Latvian territory, with one causing a fire at a disused oil storage facility. The incident prompted school closures, flight restrictions, and significant public alarm. Latvia's National Armed Forces detected the intrusion and issued alerts to nearby municipalities; however, according to official government communications and subsequent media briefings, the public warning system was widely criticized as delayed and inadequate.
2. Emergency Response and Defense Sector Failures
Latvia's initial response drew widespread criticism for the slow activation of public alerts and a perceived lack of operational preparedness, despite the country's elevated defense spending. As acknowledged in statements from the Prime Minister's office, Prime Minister Siliņa publicly recognized these shortcomings, noting that the government could not allow such failures to persist given the heightened threat environment arising from Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine. The incident exposed significant gaps in Latvia's defense and crisis management frameworks, a conclusion reinforced by national broadcasters reporting from the scene and subsequent parliamentary discussion.
3. Resignation of Defense Minister Andris Sprūds
On May 10, Defense Minister Andris Sprūds resigned at Prime Minister Siliņa's request. Siliņa stated that Sprūds had lost her trust and that of the public, asserting that the defense sector's leadership had failed to ensure the security of Latvian skies. The demand was made without prior coordination with the Progressives Party leadership—Sprūds' party—which viewed the move as unilateral and politically motivated. Sprūds accepted political responsibility for the incident while maintaining that he was being made a scapegoat for broader systemic failures and warned that drawing the military into political disputes risked undermining public confidence in Latvia's defense institutions.
4. Coalition Breakdown: Progressives Party Withdrawal and Political Dynamics
The coalition government—comprising New Unity, the Progressives, and the Union of Greens and Farmers—was already operating on a narrow parliamentary majority when Sprūds' forced resignation fractured coalition cohesion. The Progressives viewed the dismissal as Siliņa prioritizing political optics over coalition solidarity. Tensions deepened when Siliņa nominated her adviser, Colonel Raivis Melnis, as defense minister without consulting coalition partners; the Progressives rejected the nomination as a violation of coalition agreements. Negotiations between May 11–13 failed to resolve the deadlock. On May 13, the Progressives formally withdrew from the coalition: parliamentary leader Andris Suvajevs announced that Siliņa no longer held their confidence and called on President Edgars Rinkēvičs to open consultations on forming a new government. The Union of Greens and Farmers signaled willingness to remain with New Unity but acknowledged that the arithmetic was no longer viable. In opposition, the United List announced plans for a no-confidence motion, while the National Alliance invited parties to begin negotiations for a new majority.
5. Prime Minister Siliņa's Resignation and Political Fallout
On May 14, 2026, Prime Minister Evika Siliņa announced her resignation, citing the irreparable loss of her parliamentary majority and an irreconcilable breakdown in coalition trust. In her resignation statement, as reported by Latvia's public broadcaster and corroborated by the Prime Minister's office, Siliņa described her decision as both necessary and honest—arguing that the security demands of the moment required unity and accountability, neither of which remained achievable within the current coalition. She defended the demand for Sprūds' resignation as rooted in the need to restore public confidence in Latvia's defense sector and underscored that Latvia's people, particularly those in Latgale, should not be left in prolonged uncertainty. Following the announcement, President Rinkēvičs initiated consultations with all parliamentary factions to identify a viable path to a new government.
6. Latvia's Diplomatic Response to Russia
In the immediate aftermath of the drone incursions, Latvia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Russian Chargé d'Affaires in Riga and delivered a formal protest note condemning the entry of unmanned aerial vehicles into Latvian airspace as a direct consequence of Russia's aggression in Ukraine. According to the Ministry's official statement, Latvia affirmed that it had not sanctioned its airspace for use in military operations and demanded that Russia cease actions generating security risks across the Baltic region. Latvia firmly rejected Russian claims that Baltic states were complicit in Ukrainian drone operations against Russian territory, characterizing these assertions as deliberate disinformation aimed at undermining NATO cohesion.
7. Ukraine's Diplomatic Response and Offer of Cooperation
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha acknowledged in an official statement that the drones were Ukrainian military assets, attributing their diversion to Russian electronic warfare. Sybiha conveyed a formal apology to the Latvian government and people, reiterating that Ukraine had no intention of directing operations toward any NATO ally. Ukraine offered to dispatch technical expert teams to Latvia to assist with airspace security assessments and share expertise in drone detection and electronic warfare countermeasures—a proposal Latvia agreed to consider in close bilateral coordination.
8. Next Steps: Government Formation and Elections
Following Siliņa's resignation, President Rinkēvičs assumed a central role in managing the political transition, initiating consultations with all parliamentary factions to identify a new prime ministerial candidate capable of assembling a working majority. Preliminary signals from the National Alliance, Union of Greens and Farmers, and United List indicated potential grounds for cooperation. With regular parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2026, political leaders face significant pressure to resolve the crisis swiftly and avoid a prolonged period of caretaker governance.
Conclusion
The collapse of Latvia's coalition government in May 2026 was triggered by Ukrainian drone incursions that exposed critical defense failures and led to political accountability demands the coalition could not withstand. The resignations of Defense Minister Andris Sprūds and Prime Minister Evika Siliņa marked the culmination of this crisis, leaving Latvia in political transition as it prepares for October elections and navigates heightened regional security challenges.